Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 23.845566 26.010493 28.359690 31.111595 34.264023 37.783076 42.037563
2025-11-16 20.539964 23.489622 26.921874 31.263515 36.686586 43.345115 52.315411
2025-11-23 18.143687 21.507633 25.639541 31.200543 38.673389 48.659390 63.562553
2025-11-30 16.331724 19.914349 24.509386 31.018928 40.333032 53.763411 75.858031
2025-12-07 14.994136 18.717501 23.670221 31.004848 42.105898 59.289702 90.406641
2025-12-14 13.863748 17.644056 22.827406 30.799641 43.475727 64.408303 105.976199
2025-12-21 13.315068 17.289032 22.914135 31.924369 47.052656 73.957830 133.717492
2025-12-28 12.475023 16.432259 22.163915 31.623657 48.174452 79.372075 155.416556
2026-01-04 11.816957 15.775050 21.633163 31.582100 49.703694 85.926255 183.396979
2026-01-11 11.330235 15.325482 21.366502 31.925757 51.972662 94.624191 222.928530
2026-01-18 10.775181 14.727428 20.806416 31.682813 53.051650 101.002555 260.552944
2026-01-25 10.291440 14.202807 20.315528 31.495880 54.197856 107.897154 306.477387
2026-02-01 9.866356 13.751724 19.924421 31.477300 55.772901 116.659842 371.356391
2026-02-08 9.444234 13.279237 19.461652 31.275064 56.930618 124.835314 446.617341
2026-02-15 9.054598 12.834695 19.011754 31.046548 57.996931 133.258433 539.948393
2026-02-22 8.693660 12.414993 18.572663 30.789358 58.955022 141.838355 655.980127
2026-03-01 8.394599 12.079149 18.254720 30.739352 60.418064 152.853104 827.262267
2026-03-08 8.093709 11.723223 17.875144 30.519854 61.415598 162.813968 1034.095929
2026-03-15 8.001478 11.710896 18.111178 31.621492 66.150663 190.035922 1651.090084
2026-03-22 7.725320 11.370253 17.720151 31.320994 66.964647 201.625003 2163.873550
2026-03-29 7.501348 11.108061 17.457766 31.278189 68.525932 217.855730 3088.007132
2026-04-05 7.338844 10.943936 17.368439 31.616225 71.314250 242.532455 5187.868126
2026-04-12 7.117414 10.665856 17.043540 31.376247 72.276246 258.524638 8048.353570